19–22 May 2026
Europe/Paris timezone

Optimization under uncertainty for the definition of aquifer sustainable yield under climate change

19 May 2026, 15:05
1h 30m
Poster Presentation (MS19) Uncertainty-Aware Decision Support in Porous Media Applications Poster

Speaker

Alexandre Pryet (Bordeaux INP)

Description

An “acceptable” pumping strategy can be defined as the distribution of pumping rates that can satisfy the demand without causing intolerable effects to any other direct or indirect users of the water resource. In this perspective, the quantification of sustainable pumping rates is a constrained optimization problem, whereby pumping rates are the decision variables and total pumping is maximized to fulfill the demand while satisfying a series of constraints such as minimum discharge rates and groundwater levels.

We implemented a physically based, surface-subsurface flow model to support groundwater management in a rural watershed located in the French South-West sedimentary basin. History-matching was conducted with an iterative ensemble smoother and simulation-optimization problems were addressed with a reliability-based, evolutionary optimizer.

Most studies dealing with model-based, decision support for water management follow a simulation approach, whereby a series of pre-defined pumping strategies are considered, and the associated effects are compared. The simulation-optimization approach allows a broader exploration of pumping strategies and a rational estimation of the sustainable yield. Its implementation is relatively tedious, but a fully scripted workflow facilitates the replication of the approach. The reduction of the computational burden is the principal limitation when dealing with parametric uncertainty and multiple climate models. Another challenge is the appropriation of the results by stakeholders and the practical implementation of the optimized pumping strategies.

Country France
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Author

Alexandre Pryet (Bordeaux INP)

Co-authors

Mr Etienne Buscarlet (BRGM) Mr Jean-Pierre Vergnes (BRGM) Mr Marc Saltel (BRGM) Olivier Cabaret (BRGM)

Presentation materials

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